by Dennis Meredith, author Earthbound: The Obstacles to Human Space Exploration and the Promise of Artificial Intelligence.
When NASA introduced the Artemis III astronauts recently, it mounted a performance worthy of the intros of wrestlers at the UFC White House cage match. Both featured pulse-pounding music, macho males, flashy costumes, and hyperbolic rhetoric. The Artemis ceremony was capped with the Artemis II astronauts handing off to the Artemis III crew a golden baton—a color known to be in favor with the current administration.
NASA recognizes that it needs all the drama possible to sell the Artemis lunar program because it is in the end driven by politics, not science or commerce. NASA is seeking some $30 billion to build its Moon Base, and is already lobbying Congress for a down payment of billions of dollars. For the huge price tag, it knows that politics must provide the propulsive force—for example, the nationalistic push to beat China to the moon.
In its funding strategy, NASA has two modes, according to space exploration advocate Robert Zubrin: it spends money to do things, and it does things to spend money. Spending money to do things is exemplified by the stunningly successful unmanned space science programs—prime examples being the brilliantly engineered James Webb Space Telescope and Mars rovers. They have yielded a wealth of new knowledge about the universe and about Mars.
Doing things to spend money is an apt description of the Artemis program, as seen in its planning process. Normally, when designing a scientific mission such as a space telescope or planetary lander, planners first formulate the scientific questions they want answered. Then they design a mission to explore those questions. But the Artemis program reverses that mode. That is, NASA is planning a moon base without a clear scientific or economic justification.
Artemis advocates certainly haven’t come up with a substantive, detailed case for the moon base. Wrote space journalist Jeff Foust, “NASA has said little about specific requirements for the facility. . . even general descriptions of activities that will take place there.”
Indeed, White House space official Charlie Powell gave a particularly vague answer about why the moon base should be built: “There’s a lot of reasons to build the Moonbase. The first is because we can,” he was quoted by Foust as declaring during a session at the Space Foundation’s Space Symposium. Powell added, “The second reason to build a Moonbase is that we must.”
So, salient question are: If NASA doesn’t know what it’s going to build, and for what purpose, how do they know the program will cost $30 billion? And given that the Artemis program has already suffered huge cost overruns, is it rather likely that $30 billion is merely a baseline guesstimate?
The Artemis program is critical to NASA’s very survival, given that human space exploration comprises about half of its budget. NASA’s staunch advocacy for human space exploration reflects a cynical adage coined decades ago: “No Buck Rogers, no bucks.” And while Artemis has remained safe from budget cuts, NASA’s unmanned science missions are threatened with drastic reductions.
Cosmic cheerleaders promote Artemis
Artemis’s political attractiveness underpins that security. As President Trump pithily put it during an Oval Office event with the Artemis II astronauts, “I like space.”
Politicians have been among the most prominent cosmic cheerleaders for the human space program, along with profit-seeking aerospace corporations, and billionaires with space visions such as Elon Musk.
Politicians find space missions advantageous because rocket launches are far more public and thrilling than, say, a new highway or a sewage treatment plant. So, politicians can bask in the reflected glow of space missions for which they have helped gain funding. They also benefit from the fact that the space program creates jobs in their district’s NASA centers and NASA-funded companies.
Aerospace companies are also top cosmic cheerleaders because many reap profits from cost-plus contracts by which NASA has often paid industry to develop space hardware. In this funding scheme, NASA gives companies whatever it costs to build a system, plus an additional fee for profit. So, companies have no incentive to save money. In fact, they are incentivized to draw out contracts as long as possible, leading to the massive cost overruns, cited earlier. What’s more, NASA’s changing priorities have meant billions of dollars more in cost overruns for hardware that was ultimately cancelled.
A 2023 report of the Government Accounting Office (GAO) declared that NASA “does not plan to measure production costs to monitor the affordability of . . . the Space Launch System (SLS).” It found that “NASA plans to spend billions of dollars to continue producing multiple SLS components, such as core stages and rocket engines, needed for future Artemis missions.” The report said that NASA itself told GAO that “at current cost levels, the SLS program is unaffordable.”
As might be expected, aerospace firms spend heavily on lobbying. According to the website OpenSecrets.org, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and other aerospace companies spend well over $10 million each per year to lobby Congress and the executive branch. Such money doesn’t even count campaign contributions by the companies’ political action committees and employees.
Politization of the Artemis program is obvious in its politically driven timeline. For example, the Trump administration has set a 2028 deadline for the Artemis moon landing, before the end of Donald Trump’s term.
Politicians can kill missions
Ironically, politicians are also mission-killers, perfectly willing to squeeze the budgets for space programs or to cancel them when they show waning political payoff.
For example, politics was primarily behind cancellation of the final three lunar missions of the Apollo program. Richard Nixon decided the program had achieved its goal of beating the Soviets to the moon, and polls showed low public enthusiasm for lunar exploration. A long list of other US human space programs also met their end due to changing political winds, including:
- Man In Space Soonest, an Air Force program to orbit an astronaut, canceled in 1958
- Dyna-Soar, an Air Force program to develop a crewed spaceplane canceled in 1963
- The Manned Orbital Development System, an Air Force plan for a military space station, canceled in 1963
- Manned Orbiting Laboratory, a follow-on to the Dyna-Soar project, canceled in 1969
- Rockwell X-30, a demonstrator project to create a single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft, canceled in 1993
- Venturestar, a reusable single-stage-to-orbit spaceplane, canceled in 2001
- Project Constellation, NASA’s intended successor to the Space Shuttle, canceled in 2010.
If this dismal record is any guide, the Artemis moon base will also likely fall victim to political and budgetary vicissitudes, with the burden of its $30-billion price tag trumping the race with China.
The compelling reality of AI
Artemis could also fall victim to the reality that rapidly evolving artificially intelligent (AI) robot rovers and space probes could explore the moon and other bodies more comprehensively and cost-effectively than could a few humans trundling about in bulky space suits.
Robots don’t have lungs that could be shredded by the clinging, razor-sharp lunar dust. They don’t have bodies that could be decimated by lunar radiation actually more intense than in deep space—due to additional secondary radiation triggered by high-energy cosmic rays impacting lunar soil. And robots don’t have muscles or bones that would weaken in weightless space or the moon’s one-sixth Earth gravity.
Rather, they are built to be radiation-hardened, to function in any gravity environment, and with a design engineered for each mission. Humans come in only one basic model.
And unlike humans, to survive robots don’t need a narrow temperature range or a constant supply of air, food, and water. Thus, they don’t require the gargantuan amounts of money, fuel, and supplies necessary for human missions.
NASA and private companies are already developing and using AI extensively to land rockets, dock spacecraft, design hardware and missions, assist astronauts, monitor astronaut health, manage maintenance, navigate satellites, analyze data, track space debris, detect planetary geological features, and recognize patterns in astronomical images.
The Artemis planners have certainly recognized the value of AI. The moon base project’s initial phase involves dispatching autonomous rovers and drones to scout the landing region and prepare for future surface operations.
NASA is also creating AI software for robots to make tactical decisions about exploring alien worlds. Its NeBula (Networked Belief-aware Perceptual Autonomy) system enables robots to conduct explorations without direct human guidance.
And NASA is already building AI-piloted robots for exploration. Its CADRE (Cooperative Autonomous Distributed Robotic Exploration) lunar lander, to be launched later this year, will unload three briefcase-sized rovers to roll about the surface and use cameras, navigation sensors, and ground-penetrating radar to map the terrain in 3D. Linked via a radio network, they will coordinate their mapping with no human intervention.
Farther out in the solar system, the car-sized Dragonfly rotorcraft, to be launched in 2028, will autonomously explore Saturn’s moon Titan, deciding where to land to drill samples in the ice and analyze them.
While AI robots would not come across as attractively personable in news conferences, collaborating with scientists, they could explore exotic realms from Martian caves to Europa’s oceans to Venus’s murky, superhot atmosphere. The rich trove of visual data they transmit to Earth could generate a Virtual Cosmos that all of humanity could explore, experiencing the wonders of the solar system.